Common ordinal models, including the ordered logit model and the continuation ratio model, are formulated by a common score (ie, a linear combination of given explanatory variables) plus rank-specific ...

This course provides an introduction to probability models including sample spaces, mutually exclusive and independent events, conditional probability and Bayes' Theorem. The named distributions ...

Here’s how an AI-powered trader earned $2.2 million on Polymarket using data models, automation and probability-based trading ...

Traders in bonds and credit default swaps are bombarded with information on the default probabilities implied by credit spreads using a simple ratio. This ratio predicts that the credit spread will be ...

“There are known knowns. There are known unknowns. But there are also unknown unknowns—things we do not yet realize we do not know.”—Donald Rumsfeld (2002) While modern machine learning (ML) ...

This section provides a concise overview of key concepts in credit risk, informed by regulatory frameworks and practical modeling considerations. A direct "default" label is often unavailable, ...

Probability is a measure of the likelihood of events happening. The greater the proportion of times an event can happen the greater (or more likely) the probability. Events can be ordered by the ...